WHAT SHOT TO PLAY.
These notes pose the questions – Can Players play percentage bowls? They start to answer this question by applying percentage bowls (choose the shot with the higheset probability) to three different situations. However do Players have knowledge of their probabilities. Probably they do not. Thus they cannot really play percentage bowls.
The notes discuss the probabilities of various shots achieving their objectives – in the hope that they might help Players make a wise choice with repect to what shot to play. They give information on the probabilities of (a) a successful dead draw from two consecutive attempts and (b) hitting a target with an Upshot (Drive or Swinger). This information comes from the recording of games for over ten years. However the information has some limitations because of at least two weaknesses in recording relevant information.The notes list the various tables that exists for these two probabilities and other related information. They give some points from each of the various tables that (a) cover a number of different grades and (b) State games.
The next file (in excel) shows the detailed tables for the information mentioned above. (10/8/09).